NO RETURN TO THE 1970’s….Inflation is likely to cycle UP and DOWN over the next year. In 1980, US inflation peaked at a bit over 14%, which pushed home mortgages to 18%. Let that sink in. While you’re at it, enjoy these flashbacks from circa 1980: Studio 54 was ramping up and closing down with […]
read more
Global Interest Rates Are at All-Time Lows.Here are Ten Reasons You Should Care. Interest rates around the world are so low, it is as if they are playing limbo with gophers who can go subterranean, or in this case negative. Is that a good, bad, or just a strange thing? We will look at all […]
read more
It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times… With 2018 behind us, this edition of Cutting Through the Noise looks back on what drove positive asset performance through the first three quarters of the year, and conversely what collectively caused every major asset class except for high quality bonds (just barely), […]
read more
Escalating Trade Tariffs and their Potential Impact on the Global Economic Pie Meeting Nelson Mandela in June 1995, during the Rugby World Cup in Johannesburg (aka Invictus), was one of the most memorable events of my life. As an institutional mutual fund manager, I was on the other side of South Africa’s very first […]
read more
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is the economy’s thermometer. The economy’s current growth rate, growth and inflation expectations, and the cost of debt financing are embedded in one number—the rate our government borrows money at for ten years. Our thermometer registered a feverish reading in the hyperinflation of the 1970s, and steadily fell for […]
read more
