NO RETURN TO THE 1970’s….Inflation is likely to cycle UP and DOWN over the next year. In 1980, US inflation peaked at a bit over 14%, which pushed home mortgages to 18%. Let that sink in. While you’re at it, enjoy these flashbacks from circa 1980: Studio 54 was ramping up and closing down with […]
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We all remember Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity, made famous by his E=mc2 equation. Interestingly, Einstein’s theory of relativity had two distinct parts: 1) the theory of special relativity, which held that the laws of physics impacted all things equally regardless of perspective, and 2) the broader theory of general relativity which indicated that those […]
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Without question, this has been one of the closest and most contentious Presidential elections in our Nation’s history, and with the country already embroiled in a deep Covid-induced recession, we wanted to take a moment to recap what has transpired thus far, where we are now, and our present views on the capital markets moving […]
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Hello Everyone, We hope you had a Happy Easter weekend, and are all safe, healthy, and finding new ways to stay sane and entertained. Now, more than ever, we are all in this together. I used the three day pause in the markets to catch my breath and ponder the events leading to this point, […]
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Good Afternoon Clients, Colleagues and Friends, I hope this letter finds you and your loved ones safe, healthy, and sane in these challenging times. As we all deal with the impact of this coronavirus, we see the markets react with extreme volatility. Many of you have inquired about the best timing and method to take […]
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Global Interest Rates Are at All-Time Lows.Here are Ten Reasons You Should Care. Interest rates around the world are so low, it is as if they are playing limbo with gophers who can go subterranean, or in this case negative. Is that a good, bad, or just a strange thing? We will look at all […]
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Everyone remembers the beginning of The Wizard of Oz, when we watched Dorothy’s home destroyed by a massive tornado. While we didn’t see the full aftermath of the devastation (after all it was a children’s movie), it was easy to surmise that Dorothy’s town was going to need some serious capital. We then followed […]
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Budgets not big enough for specialized staff, so plans rely on advisers Link to original article on PI Online Cyberthefts from 401(k) plans are always distressing, but when they occur in smaller plans, the loss can be especially painful. Take Michael Francis’ $100 million plan sponsor client. Earlier this year, a cyberthief posing as one […]
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Most smaller plans pay asset-based fee rather than per-participant rate Link to original article on PI Online Sponsors of small and midsize plans may be paying too much in fees, particularly if they’re being charged a percentage of total plan assets, according to industry experts. In 2017, participants in a defined contribution plan with fewer […]
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Reflections from a pilgrimage to Omaha…. Berkshire Hathaway, along with its iconic helmsman Warren Buffett, has long been revered as the quintessential all-weather value-based investment. Buffett, dubbed the “Oracle of Omaha,” has successfully navigated the financial markets for the last 4+ decades, solidly beating just about every benchmark index over every time period. Berkshire Hathaway […]
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Monetary and Fiscal Policies Lean Toward Short Term Gain, but Longer Term Pain… Last summer my son and I participated in a group father/son fly fishing trip on the Deschutes River in Oregon. Don’t worry, this is not a story about who caught the biggest, the most or a cold. No, the trip splashed an […]
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It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times… With 2018 behind us, this edition of Cutting Through the Noise looks back on what drove positive asset performance through the first three quarters of the year, and conversely what collectively caused every major asset class except for high quality bonds (just barely), […]
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Is a Recession Looming Ahead? Risks and Opportunities of a Flat Yield Curve Is the treasury bond yield curve sending a dangerous signal about the economy? How have stocks historically performed in similar bond market environments? Can the Fed balance growth, inflation and maintain its independence? Should you refinance your mortgage in the present interest […]
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Escalating Trade Tariffs and their Potential Impact on the Global Economic Pie Meeting Nelson Mandela in June 1995, during the Rugby World Cup in Johannesburg (aka Invictus), was one of the most memorable events of my life. As an institutional mutual fund manager, I was on the other side of South Africa’s very first […]
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Let’s Tap A BEER To See If Stocks Are Over, Under, Or Fairly Valued “Interest rates and volatility are on the rise, as are investor jitters, so now is the perfect time to pop open the BEER analysis.” Lager, ale, IPA, steam, stout, or pilsner? Nope, that’s not what we’re here to discuss. This […]
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Here’s What You Need to Know Cryptocurrency is the buzzword du jour for investors and technology enthusiasts alike. Last month we gave an overview of cryptocurrencies and their foundational platform structure, the blockchain. This month, Andre Huaman, Partner at Three Bell Capital, follows up our cryptocurrency primer with a detailed Q&A with cryptocurrency expert, Brayton […]
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By Jon Porter and Andre Huaman “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and […]
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“You Can’t Know Where You Are Going Until You Know Where You’ve Been” ~ Maya Angelou As an institutional asset manager, I often compared quantitative investment management to driving through the rear-view mirror. The view looking backward offers clear 20/20 vision that allows investors to update their inputs and dial settings while relying on objective analysis […]
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Unwinding the Fed’s Quantitative Easing Program The Great Experiment is unwinding. The U.S. Federal Reserve Central Bank (Fed) is beginning to reverse its Quantitative Easing (QE) program, a 2009 policy created in response to the worsening financial crisis known as the Great Recession. Since its very conception, QE was considered a controversial, unconventional, and some […]
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Where to Find Reliable, Risk-Adjusted Returns on investments… Peer-To-Peer Lending Short-Term Construction Lending Life Settlements Merger Arbitrage Most of us are familiar with the famous fictional private detective, Sherlock Holmes, created by British author, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. In the stories, Holmes was known as a “consulting detective”, tactically tapped by his clients (often Scotland […]
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