Is a Recession Looming Ahead? Risks and Opportunities of a Flat Yield Curve Is the treasury bond yield curve sending a dangerous signal about the economy? How have stocks historically performed in similar bond market environments? Can the Fed balance growth, inflation and maintain its independence? Should you refinance your mortgage in the present interest […]
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Escalating Trade Tariffs and their Potential Impact on the Global Economic Pie Meeting Nelson Mandela in June 1995, during the Rugby World Cup in Johannesburg (aka Invictus), was one of the most memorable events of my life. As an institutional mutual fund manager, I was on the other side of South Africa’s very first […]
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Let’s Tap A BEER To See If Stocks Are Over, Under, Or Fairly Valued “Interest rates and volatility are on the rise, as are investor jitters, so now is the perfect time to pop open the BEER analysis.” Lager, ale, IPA, steam, stout, or pilsner? Nope, that’s not what we’re here to discuss. This […]
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FIRST WORLD SOCK PROBLEMS How many times have you opened your sock drawer in the morning and rummaged around for a favorite pair of socks, passing over the less desirable pairs? Conversely, how many of you think your socks just plain suck and don’t even own a single pair you really like? Personally, mine always […]
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LOS ALTOS, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Andre Huaman, Partner at Three Bell Capital (Three Bell) and head of Three Bell’s Corporate Retirement Plan Division which manages approximately $1B in plan assets, has been selected as a delegate to the National Association of Plan Advisors’ (NAPA) DC Forum. The NAPA DC Forum is an invitation-only, exclusive gathering of the Nation’s leading […]
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Here’s What You Need to Know Cryptocurrency is the buzzword du jour for investors and technology enthusiasts alike. Last month we gave an overview of cryptocurrencies and their foundational platform structure, the blockchain. This month, Andre Huaman, Partner at Three Bell Capital, follows up our cryptocurrency primer with a detailed Q&A with cryptocurrency expert, Brayton […]
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By Jon Porter and Andre Huaman “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and […]
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A letter from the CEO: Happy New Year! As we officially kick off 2018, I wanted to share some very exciting news about Three Bell Capital. Thanks to our dedicated team, loyal clients, and innovative partners, Three Bell Capital was recently named the #1 Emerging Wealth Management Firm in the U.S. by RIA Channel on […]
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“You Can’t Know Where You Are Going Until You Know Where You’ve Been” ~ Maya Angelou As an institutional asset manager, I often compared quantitative investment management to driving through the rear-view mirror. The view looking backward offers clear 20/20 vision that allows investors to update their inputs and dial settings while relying on objective analysis […]
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Unwinding the Fed’s Quantitative Easing Program The Great Experiment is unwinding. The U.S. Federal Reserve Central Bank (Fed) is beginning to reverse its Quantitative Easing (QE) program, a 2009 policy created in response to the worsening financial crisis known as the Great Recession. Since its very conception, QE was considered a controversial, unconventional, and some […]
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Where to Find Reliable, Risk-Adjusted Returns on investments… Peer-To-Peer Lending Short-Term Construction Lending Life Settlements Merger Arbitrage Most of us are familiar with the famous fictional private detective, Sherlock Holmes, created by British author, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. In the stories, Holmes was known as a “consulting detective”, tactically tapped by his clients (often Scotland […]
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By: Will Martin Senior Managing Director and Investment Strategist With both stock and bond markets priced for perfection, it is time to look for asset classes that can provide true diversification to lower risk and increase returns. Introduction Apple, Inc. taught us the power and promise available through embracing change, if we only learn to […]
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By: Will Martin Senior Managing Director And Investment Strategist Active investing is under siege by a proliferation of passive investments. Must there be only one winner in this fight? In last month’s edition of Cutting Through the Noise, we took a good look under the hood of passive investment vehicles, and concluded that, while they […]
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Learn About Active vs. Passive Investment Vehicles Here. By: Will Martin, CFA Senior Managing Director & Investment Strategist at Three Bell Capital Although index and exchange-traded funds (“ETF’s”) have been around for 25+ years, money has absolutely poured into these investment vehicles (and conversely out of actively-managed funds) in the nine years following the 2008 […]
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By: Will Martin, CFA Senior Managing Director & Investment Strategist at Three Bell Capital Just as Bob Dylan grappled with life’s great questions in his 1963 hit “Blowin’ in the Wind”, we at Three Bell are asking ourselves some of the market’s big questions. For example, how many times can the prevailing winds shift before […]
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Its Kryptonite is Acrophobia… PART 3 of 3 – Current Market Valuation By: Will Martin, CFA Senior Managing Director & Investment Strategist at Three Bell Capital Hand me my CAPE, Lois…it is time to help serious investors build reliable expectations! In Part 1, we learned why the CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price – Earnings) model is […]
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We are thrilled to announce the addition of veteran institutional portfolio manager Will Martin, CFA, to the Three Bell Capital team. Bill will help lead the Three Bell Investment Committee’s efforts to design, implement and manage client investment strategies and portfolios. Bill brings to Three Bell Capital over 30 years of experience as an institutional investor and […]
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Valuation: Weighing Market Expectations – The Second in a Three-Part Series Last month we showed that stock market valuations are currently stretched, demonstrated with the Shiller-CAPE model based on a historical perspective. Stocks now appear the most expensive in history when we adjust market valuations for economic growth and earnings potential. The single, largest offsetting […]
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Valuation: The First in a Three-Part Series “Price is what you pay and value is what you get.” ~ Warren Buffet “Intelligent investing is value investing – acquiring more than you are paying for.” ~ Charlie Munger (Warren Buffet’s long-time partner at Berkshire Hathaway). Let’s talk prices. To do so, we don’t need Bob Barker, […]
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A View Into The Fed’s Inner-Sanctum I recently had the pleasure of sitting in on a discussion with former Federal Reserve Bank President from Philadelphia, Charles Plosser. Charles spent 10 years at the Fed, before terming off in 2016. We were hosted at a lovely home on University Avenue in Palo Alto. Charles’s visit was […]
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